Deeply understanding the driving factors and change logic of China's institutional reform is not only helpful to summarize the significant achievements and valuable experience in the reform, but also significant to consolidate the achievements of institutional reform. This paper takes the eight institutional reforms from 1982 to 2018 since Reform and Opening-up as research sample, focuses on micro institutions, and empirically explores the driving factors and change logic of institutional reform. The results show that national strategy is an important factor driving institutional reform, institutions related to national strategy in a specific period are more likely to face reform. With the promotion of service-oriented government construction, social demand has also become an important factor that triggers the start and affects the degree of reform. Especially in the four round reforms from 2003 to 2018, social demand can not only directly trigger reform, but also promote institutional reform by influencing the national strategy. It means that, the government's response to social needs has gradually shifted from the early strategic level docking to the active response through reform, and social needs have directly entered the reform agenda. In addition, except for the number of departments under the institution, other internal characteristics have little impact on the institutional reform. While the rapid growth of the number of financial support and weak economic growth will trigger large-scale institutional reform, and the impact of urbanization shift from positive guidance to reverse. Control the fixed effects of time and functional categories and use multiple imputation methods to retests, it finds that the results are robust. This study not only helps to deepen the rational understanding of institutional reform, but also provides historical and theoretical reference for promoting a new round of institutional reform in the future.

"> Institutional Reform, Driving Factors, National Strategy, Social Demand

深入理解中国机构改革的驱动因素和变迁逻辑对总结深化党和国家机构改革取得的重大成效和宝贵经验,巩固机构改革成果意义重大。本文以改革开放后1982—2018年启动的八次机构改革为研究样本,聚焦到微观机构,实证探究机构改革的驱动因素和变迁逻辑。结果表明,国家战略是驱动机构改革的重要因素,与特定时期国家战略相关的机构更可能面临改革。随着服务型政府建设的推进,社会需求也成为触发改革启动以及影响改革程度的重要因素,尤其在2003—2018年的四轮机构改革中,社会需求既能直接触发改革,又能通过影响国家战略推进机构改革。这反映了政府对社会需求的回应由早期的战略层面对接逐步转向通过改革主动应对,社会需求直接进入改革议程。另外,除机构下设司局数量外,其他机构内部特征因素对机构改革的影响很小,而财政供养人数增长过快、经济增长乏力会触发大规模的机构改革,城镇化对机构改革的影响则由正向引导转向反向倒逼。控制时间和职能类别固定效应以及采用多重插补方法进行重新估计,发现结果是稳健的。本研究不仅有助于加深对机构改革的理性认识,还能为日后推进新一轮机构改革提供历史借鉴和理论参考。