Analyzing China's historical reforms has had a great impact on the comprehensive deepening of reforms. This article constructs a comprehensive analysis framework based on the subject theory, geography theory, change theory and system theory, and reinterprets the influencing factors of the 14 reforms in history. The results of fsQCA show that a single condition fails to fully explain the success or failure of the reform. It is a combined function of the six conditions: “initial conditions”, “external environment”, “reform subjects”, “reform measures”, “institutional innovation” and “process requirements”. There are 5 configurations for successful reforms, which can be refined into an efficient execution mode and a centralized breakthrough mode, indicating that higher process requirements and strong main power are the core conditions. There are three configurations of failed reforms, which are simplified into a weak execution mode and a weak reform mode according to the strength of the "process requirements". The common point is that the reform subject is weak and the execution power is weak. Based on this, five theoretical propositions are derived: the interaction and coupling of multiple factors leads to successful reforms; reforms with strong subjects are easy to succeed; reform measures, process requirements and innovation strengths complement each other; reforms present historical cycles, and reforms in the early dynasty are easy to succeed; the lack of core conditions caused the reform to fail. Research has revealed that successful reforms must break through historical constraints with institutional innovation, follow a reasonable path, and avoid risks in a timely manner. This research attempts to bring history back to the perspective of public management, and to study the reform stories in our country's history, in order to construct a Chinese-style governance knowledge system.

分析中国历代改革对于全面深化改革大有裨益。本文基于主体说、地理说、变迁论及系统论构建一个综合分析框架,重新解释历史上14次改革的影响因素。fsQCA 结果表明,单一条件未能充分解释改革的成败,它是 “初始条件”“外部环境”“改革主体”“变革措施”“制度创新”和“过程要求”这六个条件的组合函数。成功改革有五种组态,可提炼为高效执行模式和集中突破模式,说明较高的过程要求和较强的主体力量是核心条件。失败改革有三种组态,按 “过程要求”的强度简化为弱执行模式和弱变革模式,共同点在于改革主体力量较弱且执行力弱。据此推导出五个理论命题:多因素的互动耦合引发成功改革;强主体的改革容易成功;改革措施、过程要求与创新力度相辅相成;改革呈现历史周期律,王朝初期的改革容易成功;核心条件的缺失致使改革失败。研究启示成功的改革要以制度创新突破历史约束条件,依循合理路径,适时规避风险。本研究尝试把历史带回公共管理学视域,研究我国历史上的改革故事,构建中国式的治理知识体系。