Safety regulation is one of the important functions of modern government. Since the reform and opening up in 1978, in the process of promoting the construction of a regulatory state, the efforts of Chinese governments at all levels to strengthen safety regulation coexist with the safety regulation quality which is still relatively weak. How to understand the contradiction between the efforts of safety regulation and the weak safety regulation quality? This article constructs a scissors-gap model of regulate quality and risk level to describe the ongoing process of the scissors gap between the supply of safety regulation and the demand for risk governance in the process from routine regulation to campaign-style governance based on the evolution of risk and the adaptability of regulation. The framework regards risk as a dynamic evolution process of accumulation and superposition, and requires the establishment of a suitable dynamic regulatory behavior model. The traditional campaign-style regulation mode can temporarily control risks, but it cannot stably control or reduce risks to a lower level for a long time. There is a scissors gap between the dynamic evolution of risks and regulatory behavior, and various risks and hidden dangers continue to accumulate, which may eventually lead to major accidents when triggered by specific factors. Based on this analytical framework, this article conducted an in-depth case analysis of the "4.29" self-constructed building collapse accident in Changsha, Hunan Province. Using process-tracing methods, the dynamic change of the gap between regulation quality and risk level in the process from routine regulation to campaign-style regulation under the joint action of driving factors, and the process of scissors gap between safety regulation supply and risk management demand forms, have been addressed and verified.

安全监管是政府的重要职能。改革开放以来,在推进监管型国家建设过程中,我国各级政府做好安全监管的努力与仍然比较薄弱的安全监管现状并存。本文构建一个监管水平与风险状态的 “剪刀差”模型,基于 “灰犀牛”式渐变型风险的演化性和监管的适配性,描述安全监管供给与风险治理需求剪刀差的形成过程,解释安全监管努力与仍显薄弱的安全监管现状并存的悖论。该框架将风险看作是一个不断累积叠加的动态演进过程,要求建立与之相适应的动态调适监管行为模式;传统的运动式监管模式能暂时性地管控风险,但无法长期稳定地把风险控制在或降低到较低水平;在此过程中,风险动态演进状态与政府监管行为之间形成了一个波动 “剪刀差”,风险不断累积叠加,在特定因素触发下可能酿成重大安全事故。基于该分析框架,本文选取湖南长沙 “4·29”特别重大居民自建房倒塌事故作为典型案例,运用过程追踪方法,描述 “常规化监管-运动式治理-新一轮常规化监管”过程中监管水平与风险状态差距缩放动态变化、安全监管供给与风险治理需求形成 “剪刀差”的过程,验证安全监管 “剪刀差”模型的适用性和解释力。