Abstract: Drawn on the content analysis of over 600 local cadre evaluation regulations and statistical analysis of the career movement of prefectural-level leaders between 2003 and 2010, this paper examines the effect of economic performance, personal connection, and performance in social policy areas and social stability on local leaders’ promotion probability and speed. It shows that: first, for municipal party chiefs and mayors, economic performance is not associated with the promotion probability or speed; second, whereas for municipal party chiefs, the level of localities’ wealth and personal connection is positively associated with promotion probability, for mayors, age and performance in social policy areas matters more; third, performance in maintaining social stability does not affect the promotion prospect but delay career advancement for both municipal party chiefs and mayors. In addition to temporal and spatial variation, this paper also finds that evaluation criteria and political incentive structure for municipal party chiefs and mayors are different.