Effective legislation and enforcement in the area of road traffic safety has proved to reduce traffic injuries and fatalities in developed countries, yet such research has been limited in China, using driving-under-the-influence (DUI) as an example. Due to lack of high-quality data and primary research on driver decisions, the deterrent effects of DUI laws in China remain unclear, despite the criminalization of drunk driving since May 2011 and associated enforcement efforts by the government. Based on the classical theory of deterrence and recent advances in differential deterrence, this study as the third one in a series on legal deterrence, replicated a scenario-based conjoint experiment and established Hierarchical Bayes models for quantifying the unique effects of perceived certainty, swiftness, and severity of DUI punishment, as well as detecting variations in risk perceptions among general Chinese drivers. This replication study supported the usefulness of conjoint experiments for examining DUI decisions among drivers from different countries and groups, and helped for expanding the external validity of differential deterrence perspectives. It also provided conceptual and methodological insights into conducting experimental research and replication for the advancements of general public policy research in China.

制定并执行有效的道路交通安全法是发达国家降低道路交通伤亡的重要手段。在我国,以酒后驾驶为例,自2011年5月 “醉驾入刑”以来,政府在立法和执法方面的投入有目共睹,但由于缺乏公开的高质量一手数据,针对该法律效果的科学评估非常有限。本研究以经典法律威慑理论和最新的 “差别威慑”概念为框架,通过复制基于情景式调查的联合实验和分层贝叶斯统计模型,来考察不同驾驶人在不同法律环境中的酒驾可能性,推广该方法在法律威慑领域的应用。作为评估酒驾法律威慑的联合实验系列研究之三,本研究在已有针对美国和中国大学生的实验基础上,将类似的实验设计和统计分析复制到中国的一般驾驶人群体中,量化了法律威慑三大要素 (即严厉性、确定性和迅速性)对酒驾决策的影响,同时发现驾驶人群体内部具有明显的多样性。本研究证实了联合实验方法在不同国家和类型的驾驶人样本中的有效性,有利于促进 “差别威慑”理论的发展和拓展其外部有效性,同时该方法可以推广到评估道路交通安全法规和其他公共政策领域。